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There is a sucker’s technique referred to as "scenario analysis" and "stress testing" - normally based mostly on the past (or some "make sense" principle). But I show within the appendix how past shortfalls that don't predict subsequent shortfalls. The technical appendix shows why these metrics fail: they're based mostly on "variance"/"standard deviation" and terms invented years ago after we had no computers. There are completely different levels of creativity, talent, and technical skill. Details, particulars. There sure is a lot to recollect when planning a marriage ceremony, isn't there? A technique I can prove that anything linked to straightforward deviation is a facade of data: There is a measure called Kurtosis that signifies departure from "Normality". Words like "standard deviation" aren't stable and doesn't measure something within the Fourth Quadrant

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